...

"Shakespeare gives us more than Lear or Hamlet, real or feigned mental derangement. There is a third possibility. Titus Andronicus begins by pretending to be mad and then becomes so in reality. To translate this into the history of the American presidency, we need only return to Nixon. Just because you’ve invented and acted on the Madman Theory doesn’t mean you can’t go mad: Nixon’s paranoia, enemies lists, conspiracy theories, and seemingly drunken order to nuke North Korea do not speak of robust mental health. The Madman Theory, it seems, can be a self-fulfilling prophecy."

The New York Review: ‘The Right Amount of Crazy’, May 2026 Issue 

Links: 17/06/25

Politics: 

I spent the last week reading Stefan Zweig's posthumously published autobiography The World of Yesterday (Die Welt von Gestern, in German). It's a tragic book in the sense that the author writes about his deep affection for a world that no longer exist - the Habsburg Vienna of his early years - and from a position of indefinite exile in Brazil with no prospect of ever returning to his home. Zweig died in Petrópolis in 1942. What struck me about the book is how Zweig reckons, as a self-declared non-political artist who is driven by reverence for great masters of the arts, many of whom he name-drops in the book (and has long-standing friendships with), with the radical changes in the world after WW1. Zweig approaches this not as a politically engaged person or activist, but as a (culturally and socially - there are sequences in the 20s that find him horrified at the prospect of women cutting their hair short and men becoming more feminine, and a very bourgeois - he's only in his thirties at this point! - outrage at queerness) conservative, widely read and highly respective establishment artist who realises bit by bit what is happening and how dangerous it is becoming - for the most part perched in Salzburg (there isn't much reflection on Austria's homegrown Dollfuß/Schuschnigg authoritarianism that made the ground so fertile for the Nazi takeover) and watching what is occurring across the border in Bavaria. The two avenues we have now, in 2025, to diagnose the rise of authoritarianism and fascism, is comparisons with the past (not available to Zweig) and keeping track of the things that would have been unthinkable and out-of-the-ordinary but have now become normal (from Zweig's perspective: the deliberate cruelty of the new laws, the deliberate use of bureaucracy to terrorise people, his shunning by society). As much as I found parts of the book frustrating, especially his rose-coloured view of a past from the perspective of someone extremely privileged and not really considering how other classes or people in other parts of the empire may have experiences the same years, I've found it useful as a document for reference. 

The great In Bed With the Right podcast has been running a series of episodes that tracks the Nazi regime month-by-month through 1933 as those months are passing in 2025 with the same goal of focusing on how quickly the concept of "normal" radically changed and how it affected people. It's been in my mind while watching the videos and reading the reports about the protests against the escalating Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests in Los Angeles, which are targeting regular people who are going to work, daycare centres, or attending church services. The decision to go over the Governor of California's head to federalise the California National Guard (a federal judge's order to overturn this has been blocked by the US appeals court), which hasn't happened since Lyndon Johnson sent troops to protect civil rights protestors in Alabama, feels like a test case to see how far the judiciary has been undermined and how willing the country is to tolerate a militarisation of the streets (Trump also deployed active-duty Marines to LA). The disproportional response has highlighted the level of violence deployed by police against peaceful protestors and journalists. 

In Minnesota, a politically motivated gunman disguised as a police officer killed Democratic former House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband and attempted to assassinate another Democratic lawmaker, John Hoffman. 

 

And into this context of rising political violence and a changed international order comes Israel's bombing campaign against Iran, "which began with attacks on air defences, nuclear sites and the military chain of command, but appears to have drifted towards a war of attrition focused on Iran’s oil and gas industry and on the capital."

 

Pop Culture: 

 

I've been re-watching all of Star Trek: Deep Space Nine over the first half of 2025, which has been my first full revisiting of the show since I originally watched it when it came out, and it still stands out as the most ambitious show to ever come out of the Star Trek universe. It's almost prophetic in its recasting of Starfleet and the Federation as a less idealistic construct than before (or since) - here, there's a secret organisation within that is willing to commit genocide against an opponent (it is almost prophetic as a show that ended before 9/11 happened but shows the length that a threatened institution will go to in the face of an enemy that can't be clearly identified), and so many episodes of the show focus on the shades of grey within a resistance movement against a brutal military occupation (and then there's episodes like Far Beyond the Stars, which stand out as some of the best television ever made). I've followed it up by catching up with Star Trek: Strange New Worlds, which goes the opposite direction: it's a love letter to the original show, the idea of scientific research and beauty (sometimes horror) of diversity in these new frontiers, telling mostly self-contained stories (that frequently feel like they are, or are based on, short stories), with so much love and sense of humour and an unapologetic moral compass (one episode is essentially dedicated to the idea of asylum - the grace of an organisation that can grant it and provide safety, and the moral imperative to do so when asked). The cast is amazing throughout, but I think there's something particularly magical in Ethan Peck taking up such a beloved character and making him his own. I didn't expect to love it as much as I do but it functions like a balm without feeling like it ignores the world that has created it. It's strange to have this duality of Andor's second and final season, which feels like the most relevant season of television for this particular moment, and Strange New Worlds, a hopeful portrait of a different future that seems so impossible to reach now. 

Links: 13/1/25

Politics:

It's not hard to predict what the long-term consequences of the increasing destruction of any kind of meaningful content moderation on the most popular social network platforms will be - we already live in a post-truth political environment, where opportunistic political parties make use of dis- and misinformation, dank memes, and the hollowing out of any idea of an Overton window of acceptable political subjects and arguments. Meta, Facebook and Instagram parent-company, will abandon content moderation and fact-checking for community notes, Meta arguing that this will be "a better way [...] that’s less prone to bias". Along with this step, Meta is also scrapping some of its restrictions on (essentially) hate speech (them is summarising the kind of speech that will now be allowed, and how it targets LGBTQ+ communities). Mark Zuckerberg has visited Donald Trump in Mar-a-Lago, and revealed a list of things that he expects the incoming President to help him with in a conversation with Joe Rogan (fighting other countries that are policing his platforms, legislation with regards to AI). In addition, Meta will also eliminate its "diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs" (as have Walmart and McDonald's). So much for Timothy Snyder's call to not obey in advance to tyranny - Trump isn't even sworn in, and it is becoming clear that the billionaire class is all to eager to wring from the incoming government whatever profits it can. This is a great summary of everything that's happening and its context.

And as a further warning to what is coming, the prediction that the targeted, malicious campaign against trans people was never going to stop there, Idaho Republicans are urging the conservative Supreme Court to reconsider Obergefell v. Hodges, the landmark ruling that legalized same-sex marriage nationwide. 

"At first, he joked about Canada being an additional US state. Since, he has threatened to take back control of the Panama Canal. He also reiterated a desire from his first term to own the autonomous Danish territory of Greenland, which is not for sale.
The US is unlikely to take control of any of these regions. But these statements could indicate that Trump's "America First" vision includes flexing the superpower's muscle beyond its borders for US trade and national security interests."

BBC: Greenland and the Panama Canal aren't for sale. Why is Trump threatening to take them? 

I think this shows where we are right now, in this news environment where facts don't exist anymore and disinformation is everywhere: what does it mean when an incoming US President makes a joke about expanding US territory? The BBC, likely correctly, identifies the Canada one as a joke (as Canada is in turmoil after Justin Trudeau's resignation and will conduct its next election in the political context of Elon Musk's meddling), but it's a different story for Greenland (which has declared that its own long-term goal is independence from Denmark) and the Panama Canal (Panama was invaded in 1989 by the US to implement a "regime change").

Pop Culture: 

I enjoyed this Rolling Stone deep-dive into Jeopardy (my favourite quiz show) in the new era after the death of Alex Trebek.

...

"White supremacists are angry; those who claim that title and those who do not but who act in the interests of white supremacy. Not only are they angry, but also “we” are told that their anger must be understood--that “we” must make room for it.
This “we” is across race, sex, class, gender, and geography.
This unmoral, unethical anger has the full support of the state. It is the only anger that the state recognizes; the only anger not criminalized or met with deadly brutal force. It is the anger of Ryan and Ammon Bundy and the understanding of the jury of their all-white peers that found them not guilty of the illegal occupation and armed takeover of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge. It is an unmoral anger that hits in the register and the grammar of violence, in the logics of law and order, in electoral victories and the grammar of reconciliation with kin by any means."

The New Inquiry: Lose Your Kin, November 16, 2016.

America's Dad

"Walz has been an outspoken supporter of abortion rights, one of Democrats’ top issues this election. And unlike President Biden, a Roman Catholic who previously said Roe vs. Wade went too far and often appears uncomfortable talking about the subject, Walz embraces abortion rights as a regular talking point.

In an interview with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins, Walz praised Harris for visiting a reproductive healthcare clinic and frequently using health terms like “uterus.”

“I think old white men need to learn how to talk about this a little more,” Walz said. “And I think the biggest thing is: Listen to women. Listen to what they’re saying. We’ve seen that when we listen to them, they’re speaking loudly on the issue and they’re speaking at the ballot box.”

Los Angeles Times: What’s up with ‘weird’? Tim Walz and his Midwestern plain talk, August 6, 2024

Having a VP candidate who openly speaks about abortion rights as healthcare and talks about making Minnesota a sanctuary state for trans people feels like a tidal change in US politics. Kamala Harris, who is still riding a wave of enthusiasm since the announcement, went for a pick popular with the left wing of the Democratic Party even where other candidates were lauded as perhaps bringing vital swing states with them in the election (especially Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who gave a speech at the rally). I hate to have hope and I'm particularly worried about what message the Democratic party would take away from a loss in this election if this generational change doesn't work out, but as so many commentators have mentioned, this momentum is a radical departure of what this race felt like a few weeks ago.

Links: 29/7/24

Politics:

 

What a two weeks of politics it has been! The failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump, the Republican convention in which Ohio Senator JD Vance was picked as Trump's running mate, Joe Biden dropping out and putting Kamala Harris' name forward, the torrent of donations following, Harris' campaign machinery jumping into gear straight away and attempting an entirely new strategy: calling the opposition "weird" (I think "Trump is old and quite weird?" from a campaign strategy publication will be remembered for a long time - if there ever has been a more Gen-Y question mark in history, I can't think of it), pivoting away from the "when they go low, we go high" (someone pointed out that it's just a version of respectability politics) years that never really worked out for the Democrats. The timing of Joe Biden's exit from the race meant that the Republicans practiced all the wrong talking points at their Convention: they're no longer running against a man who would have been in his mid-80s at the end of his second term. Trump, certain of his victory, picked a running mate (who started his political career as a never-Trumper but has come around to helping elect a man he once compared to Hitler) that probably won't help him much in the polls, and has become a meme within days of being elected, perhaps showcasing that this new political machine purpose built for Donald Trump has forgotten about the importance of vetting candidates. 

Around the big headlines, there's a few other things that are maybe relevant to record for posterity: right before Biden dropped out, creator of The West Wing and famed centrist Aaron Sorkin suggested in a much ridiculed NY Times op-ed that the Democrats should pick Mitt Romney, who lost to Barack Obama in the 2012 Presidential election. It's truly a radical suggestion that the "polarised political climate" of the US could be balanced out if the Democrats simply became the centre-right Republicans of the 2010s, the kind of national healing that only a man who is equally afraid of the progressive left (a progressive left that has consistently positioned itself as a voice of reason, pragmatic even) in the Democratic party as he is of a future Trump presidency could possibly suggest. Sorkin changed his tone quickly after the Biden announcement.

The Trump campaign also seems eager to distance itself from Project 2025, a detailled conservative platform document that outlines how government agencies should be reshaped to reflect a radical, right-wing agenda in the next few years - a document that contains a lot of horrifying prospects, including dismantling the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which provides data on how climate change is worsening. It also includes plan to further "restrict abortion and contraceptives, cut social security, outlaw pornography, end marriage equality" (obviously, a lot of these initiatives poll badly with the general population, hence the distancing). To clarify what is at stake in this election, Trump has been quoted as saying "Just this time. You won’t have to do it anymore. Four more years. You know what? It’ll be fixed! It’ll be fine! You won’t have to vote anymore, my beautiful Christians. I love you, Christians!" at a campaign rally recently. 

The next few weeks will bring insights into who Kamala Harris picks as a running mate: the Democratic National Convention starts on August 19. 

Pop Culture: 

I've caught up with the Dragon show, and it's quite nice to watch something again that is widely viewed, even though barely anything these days has the water-cooler quality of peak television (and the sad demise of television criticism due to what is happening to media has been a constant sadness in my life). I quite like it for the premise of being based on a book by George R.R. Martin that is written from the perspective of those who record history for posterity - what happens on the show compared to what happens in Fire and Blood almost feels like a comment on what gets left out in the kind of history written by victors, and only interested in great power politics. 

Last week, I had a chance to see the great Kim Gordon at Unsound, but the discovery of the festival was Norwegian saxophonist Bendik Giske.

...

I've been having a difficult time thinking about US politics in the run-up to the election. Just one recurring thought: the greatest weakness of the debate is the idea that anti-fascism and literal Nazis are equidistant from the political centre (a true showcase of how far the Overton window has moved), and the imprecise nature of calling the political climate "polarised", when one side has moved so much further than the other to create a climate where political values become impossible to contain in the same polity. The last few days have also been a lesson in forcing readers and listeners to parse sentences - the idea that violent speech and action are equally present, are perpetrated by both sides, is laughable, and can easily be disproved, and any news outlet not stating this equivocally is seriously putting its ability to truthfully report and analyse reality in question - at a time where misinformation and conspiracy theories are already having such a choke-hold on narratives.

Links: 29/1/24

Politics: 

It feels like the Republican Primary at this stage is a foregone conclusion. After the Iowa caucus, in which Donald Trump managed to get ahead of Ron DeSantis by 30%, DeSantis (who has been creating a nightmare dystopia for trans people in Florida) suspended his campaign and endorsed the former President. Trump then went on to win the New Hampshire Primary, in spite of the fact that the electoral make-up of the state (independents being allowed to vote in Republican primaries, the educational make-up of the electorate) probably created more difficult conditions for him than most of the next contests will hold. Nikki Haley, the only remaining contender other than Trump, is projected to lose her home state of South Carolina, where she was governor for five years, a loss that will be the coffin nail in her campaign. It doesn't matter that Trump has just been ordered to pay $83.3 million to E. Jean Carroll in a civil trial that found him liable for sexual abuse, or that so many more law suits are pending, or that Trump has been stripped from the Maine and Colorado primary ballot for his role in the January 6, 2021 insurrection. The 2024 Presidential election will be a repeat of the 2020 one, and it will be an uphill battle for the Democrats, who are now also struggling with flagging support from Muslim Americans. 

 The findings of a recent study into abortion bans in the US are horrifying. 

Fourteen states have banned abortions at any gestational age since the Supreme Court overruled Roe v. Wade in 2022. Since the enactment of those abortion bans, an estimated 64,565 people became pregnant as a result of rape in those states.

ArsTechnica: Tens of thousands of pregnancies from rape occurring in abortion-ban states, January 27, 2024

South Africa has brought a case against Israel to the International Court of Justice. The actual ruling on the charges of genocide will take years, but the court has made an interim judgement. 

"In a historic interim judgment, the UN court in The Hague told Israel it must “take all measures within its power” to desist from killing Palestinians in contravention of the genocide convention, and to prevent and punish the incitement of genocide and facilitate the provision of “urgent basic services”. But the ruling stopped short of ordering a ceasefire to the war in Gaza."

The Guardian: ICJ ruling increases pressure on Israel to prevent civilian deaths in Gaza, January 27, 2024

Meanwhile, nine countries including Australia have suspended funds to the UNRWA, the primary humanitarian agency working in Gaza, due to charges against a small group of staff regarding the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, just as millions of Gazans are facing a famine. 

Pop Culture: 

I've been watching the fourth season of True Detective (I skipped the two previous seasons), which feels right in my wheelhouse: it is set in a remote Alaskan town during the polar night and follows the investigation of mysterious deaths in an Arctic research station. Jodie Foster and Kali Reis are starring as the investigating police officers in a show that feels deeply indebted to The Thing. I've been finding it especially enjoyable to watch the series unfold week-by-week instead of as a full-season drop (a trend I notice in general - I feel fatigued by the Netflix model of releasing whole seasons and would rather watch things more slowly, to have more time to think about what is happening and really dig into the narrative). 

Vulture has a detailed interview with Corin Tucker and Carrie Brownstein about all the songs on the new Sleater-Kinney album Little Rope. 

There's a bit of controversy surrounding the Academy Awards nominations (specifically for Barbie - the in-world irony of nominating Ryan Gosling, but not Margot Robbie or Greta Gerwig), but I'm happy that Sandra Hüller has gotten a nod for Anatomy of a Fall, with both Justine Triet's film and Jonathan Glazer's The Zone of Interest being nominated for Best Film. 

And in sports, yesterday brought two very surprising upsets to the dominant Australian cricket squads: the South African women's team under Adelaide Strikers premiership winning opener Laura Woolvardt managed to defeat Australia for the first time ever in a Canberra T20 match, and the young West Indies test squad beat the Australian men's cricket team in a day-night game with only eight runs to spare in a stunning performance by quick Shamar Joseph, who managed to get seven wickets with an injured toe. 

Links 10/8/23

Politics: 

Russia is turning food into a weapon in its war against Ukraine: it has announced a naval blockade of the countries ports, destroyed tons of cereals awaiting export in silos, and has likely destroyed the Nova Kakhovka dam, thereby disrupting water supply to Ukraine's breadbasket.

Ukraine provided half the wheat the World Food Programme (WFP) bought on global markets, which it shipped to people most in need in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen. It was good quality, cheap and quick to ship from Odesa through the Bosphorus into the Mediterranean, then through the Suez Canal to Yemen and the Horn of Africa. The WFP now has to buy grain at a higher price and transport it from ports much further away.

The Guardian: Turning food into a weapon: how Russia resorted to one of the oldest forms of warfare, August 10, 2023 

Just Security has a tracker for all the legal cases currently pending against the front-runner for the Republican presidential ticket, Donald Trump and NPR has a summary of all the cases here. A recently published memo received by the New York Times documents the Trump team "coordinating with Republican electors and campaign attorneys in six states, as well as Mike Pence" to overturn the election result. 

A coup by former UN peacekeeper General Abdourahmane Tchiani in Niger has overthrown President Bazoum. This follows coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea. The Foreign Policy Research Institute attributes this wave of coups to specific reasons in each country, and lists corruption, weak local governance and lack of confidence in democratic institutions. This UN Dispatch also mentions COVID and policies resulting from an attempt to contain it as a reason. The Wagner group has also been active in parts of Africa, and has "financial and political interests" in the region. 

The World Bank has halted new public financing for Uganda after the passing of draconian anti-LGBTQIA+ laws that include the death penalty for what Uganda calls "aggravated cases" and lifelong imprisonment. 

AIs are designing new human antibodies "that humans can't even imagine".

Pop Culture: 

For the first time since 1960 (when Ronald Reagan was President of the Screen Actors Guild!), both screenwriters and actors are striking for better working conditions, especially in light of how much the industry has changed through streaming and the rise of utilising AI (here's a particularly haunting story about what happened to the cast of Snowpiercer). Fran Drescher, current President of the SAG, gave a rousing speech to announce the strike. Variety has a a guide on what actions non-members can take (notably, they do not include stopping to watch or review films and TV series).  

Foundation and Only Murders in the Building are back with new seasons. 

G/O Media, which purchased long-established and highly regarding review site The AV Club in 2019, is now using AI to write articles (this is becoming reality). 

An attempted coup.

The day after two Democratic wins in the Georgia run-off election with gives the Democratic Party control of both houses, this. What happens when a fraction of your society is radicalised and beyond the reach of reality, and armed. 

Tens of thousands of supporters of outgoing President Donald Trump gathered in Washington, D.C., where he encouraged them to attend a rally as Congress began to ceremonially certify the Electoral College victory of President-elect Joe Biden. After a speech by the president, protesters overran security at the Capitol building, which seemed unprepared for the onslaught. They knocked over barricades, pushed past cordons of officers, and broke windows. Some carried Confederate battle flags as they got much closer to the heart of the U.S. government than any Confederate troops ever did.

The Atlantic: This Is a Coup, January 7, 2021.

Democracy is a set of agreements to make decisions together and respect the outcome whether you like them or not. The kind of violence we saw on Capitol Hill is authoritarian, a way to try to force other people to submit to the will of the perpetrators. This violence comes from the white men who were long the only people with power in this country imagining themselves as marginalized and oppressed outsiders because others might also have power and a voice. We saw these kind of men last summer, when they invaded the Michigan capital while carrying semiautomatic rifles and saw them again when a handful of them were arrested for a plot to kidnap Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. We saw them in racist shootings from the Texas border to a Pennsylvania synagogue.

This coup attempt was built by the more and more uninhibited ideology of violence we have seen again and again, in the mass shootings that became a norm in 21st-century America, the fetishization of guns and gun rights that made the killing machines and the death they inflict far more common, so that death by gun recently overtook death by car as a leading American way to die.

The Guardian: Call it what it was: a coup attempt, January 7, 2021.

A frivolous case

"Still, the fact that so many powerful Republican politicians endorsed Paxton’s Hail Mary is a profoundly disturbing sign for American democracy. These lawmakers sought to reverse the outcome of a democratic election by voiding millions of perfectly legal votes. They appear to believe that a presidential race won by a Democrat is fundamentally illegitimate, as only Republicans should be allowed to govern the nation. This cynical effort to wrest victory from Biden, who beat Trump in the Electoral College 306–232, trounced him by more than 7 million votes, and earned more votes than any candidate in history (81 million). It spells trouble ahead for a Constitution that presumes lawmakers will act in something approximating good faith."

Slate: The Supreme Court Shoots Down Texas’ Radical Attempt to Overturn the Election, December 11, 2020.

"Appeasement didn’t work in the 1930s and it won’t work now."

 "Nevertheless, we get this hopelessly naïve version of centrism, of the idea that if we’re nicer to the other side there will be no other side, just one big happy family. This inanity is also applied to the questions of belief and fact and principle, with some muddled cocktail of moral relativism and therapists’ “everyone’s feelings are valid” applied to everything. But the truth is not some compromise halfway between the truth and the lie, the fact and the delusion, the scientists and the propagandists. And the ethical is not halfway between white supremacists and human rights activists, rapists and feminists, synagogue massacrists and Jews, xenophobes and immigrants, delusional transphobes and trans people. Who the hell wants unity with Nazis until and unless they stop being Nazis?"

LitHub: Rebecca Solnit: On Not Meeting Nazis Halfway, November 19, 2020.

Transitioning from chaos

 The most remarkable experience of this Presidential election has been the gradual appearance of a result - I was 13 in 2000, and didn't have much sense of the delay that the Florida recount caused. With President Trump and the Republican party refusing the validity of the result that has now been announced by all major news organisations including FOX news (amazingly, the reality-removed trek is moving on to news organisations even further planted in an alternate reality), mounting legal challenges that keep failing, the main challenge, apart from the shockingly high numbers of new COVID-19 infections across the country, is the fact that Biden has been refused access to the transition process. The General Services Administration, which manages the Presidential transition process, is a federal agency that is refusing to accept Biden as President elect. This is relevant especially because the United States and most of the world are in the midst of an escalating epidemic - the idea of a smooth transition process, with each new administration providing the bureaucrats to run federal agencies, is that future candidates learn their job before they have to assume these roles. They are meant to be embedded well before January 2020 to ensure that they can hit the ground running. The GSA provides both financial and non-financial resources. The reasoning is the precedent set by the 2000 Presidential election - except Joe Biden has won this one by a large margin, and in reality, there is no remaining legal path for President Trump for a second term short of a coup. One of the concerns of the last four years has been the degradation of established institutions, and this is a prime example of what happens when reality is reshaped to fit the demands of someone who has no respect for established processes (or, for that part, the law). 

In addition to these concerns, the fact that Biden may govern facing a Republican Senate, pending the run-off elections in Georgia, puts into question what kind of cabinet he can get confirmed, with Republicans already threatening that they will confirm former Presidential Primary candidates Elizabeth Warren (who would only in the United States and maybe Australia be considered left-wing) or Bernie Sanders. This, in addition with the eternal debates within the Democratic party between progressives and centre-right liberals and the misguided idea of "reaching out" to a party that has failed to condemn right-wing terrorism and is supported on the street by armed men carrying Confederate flags and Nazi memorabilia, hints at a difficult four years for Biden. 

"We did it Joe"

 It is finally done. After days of following the counting of the votes in the remaining states on the map, Biden's lead in Pennsylvania and Nevada finally pushed his campaign over the edge, and Joe Biden was declared the President elect by major news corporations. Regardless of whether Trump will concede, in January 2020, his first and only term as US President will end. He may attempt to fight this result in court, but it appears as if the vote is decisive enough not be challenged, and for this decision not to be taken all the way up to the Supreme Court which is now 6:3 comprised of conservatives (and three justices who assisted Bush's legal team in the 2000 Florida recount that handed George W. Bush the presidency - a momentous historical decision from which an entire alternate universe could have emerged). The best indicator that Trump's escalating public declarations of election fraud will go nowhere is the fact that the Republican party establishment began distancing itself from him as soon as the needle in the Midwest turned the other way, as Biden won Wisconsin and Michigan, as pollsters began to predict that the remaining counties in Pennsylvania were likely to give him a win there as well. More than that - Georgia has not been declared yet by either candidate but it looks as if Joe Biden may win a state that has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton in 1992, a potential win that many credit to Stacey Abrams, who almost won the Georgia governorship in 2018 and worked tirelessly to register voters in the state without much help from the Democratic party. 

The United States that Joe Biden will govern from January 2020 will look dire. Over the last few days, the country has recorded an unprecedented number of COVID-19 infections, and with a President focusing entirely on disputing his loss, it does not look as if anything will be done in the next few months to halt the spread. The alternate fantasy that radical right-wing news organisations and online sites along with online cult QAnon have created for millions of Americans over the last few years has created a country in which armed radicals feel that the election has been stolen from them. It feels odd to approach this "divide" with an idea of reconciliation in mind. As heartening as it is for a President to once again speak about being a President of all the people (and for political speeches to return to a level of normality that has slipped over the four years of Trump's presidency), not just those who voted for him, it is difficult to conceive of a way in which this fantasy can be pulled back into the realm of reality when not even FOX news is purist enough for them (especially since FOX was one of the first news organisations that called Arizona for Joe Biden, much to Trump's dismay). 

Within the Democratic party, there is a divide as well, one that has been building over the last four years. Progressive Democrats like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts, and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan are pushing for more progressive politics, especially with regards to the climate catastrophe and reparative justice. All four of them were re-elected, and new progressive candidates across the country won as well (as an example of inspiring political oratory, here's Cori Bush's speech after her victory in Missouri), but establishment Democrats like House Speaker Nancy Pelosi insist that they are costing the Democrats votes in other segments of society. It will be interesting to see this conflict play out along with Biden's attempt to reunite a deeply divided country. It looks as if both parties have to consider their positions and how they regard the future - whether to address the growing demand for racial justice and a decisive action on climate change for the Democrats and whether to continue to enable racism and the undermining of democratic institutions for the Republicans. 

Even disregarding all those challenges, Joe Biden may face a hostile Senate, depending on how the run-off elections in Georgia go, and beyond that, a Supreme Court that, after the rushed nomination of Amy Coney Barrett, will be skewed Republican for decades to come unless Democrats pack the court. He will have to rebuild institutions and agencies that have been undermined for four years. Perhaps in reaction the electoral victories of progressive democrats, Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer has outlined what a Democratic presidency will look like, and maybe there is hope that the next four years will not just be a return to a normality that only works for those privileged enough to call it that. 

...

Not really sure what to say on this day. I remember four years ago leaving for work before the election was decided and then coming home to the result - and what a cursed year of political surprises 2016 was in general. Now in retrospect, obviously 2020 feels like a whole decade of catastrophes, and it has become difficult to recall what it felt like not to live in a world like this. What a luxury it would be to look back on four years of the Trump presidency, to have all these "we never thought this was possible in a functioning democracy" things in a neat list, instead of having it go on and on and on. We will see if blatant and publicly admitted attempts at voter suppression, throwing out legally cast votes and stacking the Supreme Court can deliver the election to a candidate who has consistently been behind in the polls, or if the nightmare ends now. 

For now: 

n+1: The Politics Trump Made: A Reading List, November 3, 2020.

Foreign policy glimpse

This week has brought new developments in the impeachment trial, mainly via a leaked excerpt from former national security adviser John Bolton's upcoming book. It reveals that Bolton was directed by President Trump that military aid to Ukraine would be contingent on an investigation into Hunter Biden's activities.

Elsewhere, Elizabeth Warren has published an article in the Atlantic that details her foreign policy objectives: withdrawing American troops from the Middle East, focusing on "statecraft", and "promoting prosperity and lessening inequality; addressing the climate crisis; answering resurgent right-wing demagogues who are undermining the strength of our democratic alliances; and countering globalized corruption and authoritarianism led from Moscow and Beijing". After a surge last year, Warren is currently struggling in the polls against Sanders and Biden, but she can claim an endorsement by the New York Times editorial board (who chaotically endorsed both her and Amy Klobuchar) and by the Des Moines Register leading up to the first primacy caucus in Iowa on February 3rd.

Formal

"Meanwhile, the House voted on Thursday to make its impeachment inquiry formal.

The measure passed 232 to 196 with no Republican support. Two Democrats joined Republicans in opposing the impeachment inquiry.

Trump and Republicans had complained that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's announcement about an inquiry didn't carry the same legal weight as an actual vote and, accordingly, it was illegitimate.

That was one reason why White House counsel Pat Cipollone vowed that the administration would not cooperate with witnesses or evidence.

But that firewall hasn't stopped several current administration witnesses. The House vote also didn't change the minds of Republicans either. They rejected the framework set out in the legislation as still too unfair to them and the due process they say they and Trump are owed." 

NPR: Impeachment Inquiry Catch-Up: A Vote By House Democrats Makes It Official, November 2, 2019

This gulf in Democrats’ and Republicans’ views is more than just partisanship, however. It’s the latest evidence that political tribalism has taken over nearly every part of American life.
According to a growing body of political-science research, Americans largely no longer feel a shared sense of national identity. Democrats and Republicans see their political opponents as enemies with totally incomprehensible beliefs and lifestyles. On impeachment, members of the two parties see things radically differently, not just because they have dissimilar political opinions, but because they have entirely divergent views on how to approach life. The vicious impeachment fight ahead may further exacerbate polarization in America, leaving Republicans, Democrats, and everyone in between feeling even more suspicious of one another.  

The Atlantic: Americans Hate One Another. Impeachment Isn’t Helping., November 2, 2019

Campaign Update, October 2019

Much has changed since the first debates of June. Elizabeth Warren has closed in on front-runner Joe Biden and is leading some polls. Warren is very successfully raising money, dominating the debate, and making headlines. 

Bernie Sanders suffered a heart attack this month and is now readjusting his campaign. 

And elsewhere, the House of Representatives' impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump is advancing, but likely the next high-ranking person about to fall (even though it is unclear if he is still Trump's attorney) is former New York mayor Rudy Giulani. 

The nature of political charisma

"Warren absolutely came alive when she started taking questions from her audience. Explaining incredibly complex policy problems in a perfectly coherent way turns out to be Warren’s superpower. And while I went in dubious that Warren’s policy-minded campaign could ever compete with the charisma-driven, Father-Knows-Best performances of presidential candidates from Ronald Reagan to Bill Clinton, let alone the supercharged persona of Donald Trump, I realized that I was completely confused about the nature of political charisma itself. [...] 

Warren is, in brief, almost painfully serious precisely because she is banking on public seriousness, running on the notion that bread and circus have had their day, and it is time now to save the republic. Warren is hoping voters are willing to engage with a persona that is competent and sober, qualities they persistently say they value when speaking to pollsters but tend to reject in favor of charisma at the ballot box. But she is proof that competent and sober does not have to mean cold and impersonal on the trail." 

Slate: Watching Elizabeth Warren Come Alive, June 6, 2019 

Warren also said that night that she supported a “national full-blown conversation” about reparations for slavery and Jim Crow. She saw this as a necessary response to the stark wealth gap between black and white families. “Today in America — because of housing discrimination, because of employment discrimination — we live in a world where the average white family has $100 and the average black family has about $5.” Several Democratic candidates have said they support a commission to study reparations. Ta-Nehisi Coates, author of the influential 2014 Atlantic article “The Case for Reparations,” said in a recent interview with The New Yorker that Warren was the candidate whose commitment seemed real because she had asked him to talk with her about his article when it came out years ago. “She was deeply serious,” Coates said.

Warren is often serious and doesn’t hesitate to convey her moral outrage. “I’ll own it,” she told me about her anger. She talked about women expressing to her their distress about sexual harassment and assault. “Well, yeah,” Warren said. “No kidding that a woman might be angry about that. Women have a right to be angry about being treated badly.”

The New York Times: Elizabeth Warren Is Completely Serious, June 17, 2019

Kamala Harris calls out Joe Biden on his support for white supremacists

"And I’m going to now direct this at Vice President Biden. I do not believe you are a racist. And I agree with you when you commit yourself to the importance of finding common ground, but I also believe — and it is personal, and it was actually very hurtful to hear you talk about the reputations of two United States senators who built their reputation and career on the segregation of race in this country.
And it was not only that, but you also worked with them to oppose busing. And you know, there was a little girl in California who was a part of the second class to integrate her public schools, and she was bused to school every day. And that little girl was me.
So I will tell you that, on this subject, it cannot be an intellectual debate among Democrats. We have to take it seriously. We have to act swiftly. As attorney general of California, I was very proud to put in place a requirement that all my special agents wear body cameras and keep those cameras on." 

The New York Times: Transcript: Kamala Harris and Joe Biden Clash on Race and Busing, June 27, 2019

This moment may just prove to be the turning point of this entire primary campaign. Not Eric Swalwell, repeatedly arguing that Joe Biden is too old to run, not Bernie Sanders, not really confronting Joe Biden because he known they're not sharing voters in any case: it's Kamala Harris, juxtaposing her personal experience of being black in America with Joe Biden's support of two racist, segregationists Senators in the 1970s, and then having him respond to this by defending states' rights.